TECHNOLOGY PREDICTIONS FOR 2003
In light of the new year, I feel the annual tug
on my prediction string to write down what I believe will occur in the
world of computing and technology for the upcoming year. So here goes:
With Apple Computer offering only dual
processors in all their tower models in 2002, and with modern
operating systems like their Mac OS X, and Microsoft's Windows XP able
to support multiple processor machines, dual processors will begin to
appear in all popular level PCs. Less likely are dual processor
portable models since notebooks already consume too much power and
produce too much heat with just one microprocessor.
DSL and other broadband services will see a huge
increase in subscribers, going into many more households across
America. Now I ask you, have you actually ever heard anyone say they
absolutely love their dialup connection, especially after they've
experienced broadband speeds? Also, the competition between cable
modem and DSL services will continue to escalate. Each service will
try and capitalize on their strong points. Cable companies will
promote any advantages to be found within their technologies that
already bring TV images into the home. And DSL will use any advantages
to be found within their existing telephone technology services to
find new abilities not possible with cable modems.
More convergence products such as combination
computer and stereo entertainment systems will begin to appear,
especially with products like Microsoft Windows XP Media Center
Edition, the "Xbox Live" online multiplayer games and WebTV that lets
you surf the Internet with your existing television. in addition,
we'll see convergence between different online entertainment products.
For example, owners of Xbox, PlayStation 2 and any computer that can
go online will be able to play the same multiplayer games with each
other. The players may not even be aware of what specific device the
others are using to play the games. This will also serve to spur on my
aforementioned broadband prediction since players with faster
broadband connection speeds will have a clear and distinct advantage
over those who only have the slower dialup connections.
With more and more broadband connections being
established, the demand for firewall software and hardware products
will increase. Having a firewall prevents hackers from surreptitiously
taking over your computer via your faster and always on Internet
connection. Firewall products may even reach the level of consumer
awareness that is enjoyed today by antivirus software.
Wireless communications will become more
prevalent in a wider variety of consumer electronic devices.
Bluetooth, for example already appears in some cell phones, PDAs and
printers. We'll begin to see wireless in other consumer electronic
devices such as digital cameras and camcorders that will wirelessly
download their video images into a PC, as well as cordless microphones
and speakers.
Junk email, better known as "SPAM" will become
worse than its ever been, despite all the filters, controls and
software that's been proposed. More and more Internet Service
Providers (ISPs) will begin to take on the responsibility of
controlling SPAM as well as checking for computer viruses. And while
ISP control of computer viruses will be welcome, many will object to
an ISP controlling what email will be filtered. Most consumers will
prefer that any email filtering be dome by them, and not their ISP.
The cost of flat screens will become so low that
the traditional CRT will for the most part, become totally extinct. I
also hold this to be true for conventional televisions as well.
Eventually, there will be no more CRT televisions. All televisions and
computer screens will be flat. I realize that this prediction may be a
bit premature in that I feel there will always be a market for
inexpensive CRT models, but they will mostly be owned by nostalgia
buffs and the like. This also will probably not occur in 2003, but
most certainly by the end of the decade.
The Linux operating system will become more
popular than ever before. I don't think I can say anything more about
that one. Just be afraid. Be very afraid.
And for my final prediction: In the year 2003,
if you ask any child or any person under the age of 16 what the word
"DOS" meant, they will not know! They will not remember that DOS stood
for "Disk Operating System," and maybe that's a good thing.
Eventually, NO ONE will remember DOS. It will truly stand for "DEAD
Operating System." Starting this year, DOS will only be remembered by
archeologists, and old-timers who love to wax nostalgic about the good
old days, when REAL men used REAL computers that used a command line
"C" prompt, and typed things like "dir." This is the year that
everyone believes we always controlled our personal computers with a
mouse. |
